| Acknowledgments | | xv | |
| Prologue The Power of Ideas | | 1 | |
| CHAPTER ONE The Six Epochs | | 7 | |
| The Intuitive Linear View Versus the Historical Exponential View |
| | 10 | |
| | 14 | |
| Epoch One: Physics and Chemistry. |
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| Epoch Two: Biology and DNA. |
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| Epoch Five: The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence. |
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| Epoch Six: The Universe Wakes Up. |
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| | 21 | |
| CHAPTER TWO A Theory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns | | 35 | |
| The Nature of Order. The Life Cycle of a Paradigm. Fractal Designs. Farsighted Evolution. |
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| The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in Its Life Cycle |
| | 51 | |
| The Life Cycle of a Technology. From Goat Skins to Downloads. |
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| | 56 | |
| Moore's Law: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? |
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| Fractal Dimensions and the Brain. |
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| DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization |
| | 72 | |
| Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's Cellular Automata. |
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| Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules? |
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| The Singularity as Economic Imperative |
| | 96 | |
| Get Eighty Trillion DollarsùLimited Time Only. |
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| CHAPTER THREE Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain | | 111 | |
| The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three-Dimensional Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies |
| | 111 | |
| The Bridge to 3-D Molecular Computing. |
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| Nanotubes Are Still the Best Bet. |
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| Computing with Molecules. |
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| Self-Assembly. Emulating Biology. |
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| Computing with DNA. Computing with Spin. |
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| The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain |
| | 122 | |
| Accelerating the Availability of Human-Level Personal Computing. |
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| The Limits of Computation |
| | 127 | |
| Reversible Computing. How Smart Is a Rock? |
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| The Limits of Nano-computing. |
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| Setting a Date for the Singularity. |
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| Memory and Computational Efficiency: A Rock Versus a Human Brain. |
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| Going Beyond the Ultimate: Pico- and Femtotechnology and Bending the Speed of Light. |
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| CHAPTER FOUR Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain | | 143 | |
| Reverse Engineering the Brain: An Overview of the Task |
| | 144 | |
| New Brain-Imaging and Modeling Tools. |
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| The Software of the Brain. |
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| Analytic Versus Neuromorphic Modeling of the Brain. |
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| How Complex Is the Brain? |
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| Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer? |
| | 149 | |
| The Brain's Circuits Are Very Slow. |
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| But It's Massively Parallel. |
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| The Brain Combines Analog and Digital Phenomena. |
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| The Brain Rewires Itself. |
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| Most of the Details in the Brain Are Random. |
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| The Brain Uses Emergent Properties. |
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| The Brain Uses Evolution. |
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| The Patterns Are Important. |
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| The Brain Is Holographic. |
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| The Brain Is Deeply Connected. |
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| The Brain Does Have an Architecture of Regions. |
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| The Design of a Brain Region Is Simpler than the Design of a Neuron. |
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| Trying to Understand Our Own Thinking: The Accelerating Pace of Research. |
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| | 157 | |
| New Tools for Scanning the Brain. |
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| Building Models of the Brain |
| | 167 | |
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| Modeling Regions of the Brain. |
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| A Neuromorphic Model: The Cerebellum. |
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| Another Example: Watts's Model of the Auditory Regions. |
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| Other Works in Progress: An Artificial Hippocampus and an Artificial Olivocerebellar Region. |
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| Understanding Higher-Level Functions: Imitation, Prediction, and Emotion. |
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| Interfacing the Brain and Machines |
| | 194 | |
| The Accelerating Pace of Reverse Engineering the Brain |
| | 195 | |
| The Scalability of Human Intelligence. |
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| Uploading the Human Brain |
| | 198 | |
| CHAPTER FIVE GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions | | 205 | |
| Genetics: The Intersection of Information and Biology |
| | 206 | |
| Life's Computer. Designer Baby Boomers. |
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| Can We Really Live Forever? |
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| Cell Therapies. Gene Chips. |
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| Reversing Degenerative Disease. |
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| Intracellular Aggregates. |
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| Extracellular Aggregates. |
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| Human Cloning: The Least Interesting Application of Cloning Technology. |
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| Why Is Cloning Important? Preserving Endangered Species and Restoring Extinct Ones. |
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| Human Somatic-Cell Engineering. |
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| Nanotechnology: The Intersection of Information and the Physical World |
| | 226 | |
| The Biological Assembler. |
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| Upgrading the Cell Nucleus with a Nano-computer and Nanobot. |
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| Powering the Singularity. |
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| Applications of Nanotechnology to the Environment. |
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| Nanobots in the Bloodstream. |
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| | 259 | |
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| Genetic Algorithms (GAs). |
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| Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are Computers Getting Stupider? |
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| The Specialized-Hardware Advantage. |
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| Deep Blue Versus Deep Fritz. |
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| Significant Software Gains. |
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| Are Human Chess Players Doomed? |
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| Military and Intelligence. |
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| Business, Finance, and Manufacturing. |
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| Manufacturing and Robotics. |
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| Entertainment and Sports. |
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| CHAPTER SIX The Impact... | | .299 | |
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| | 300 | |
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| Redesigning the Digestive System. |
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| Redesigning the Human Brain. |
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| | 312 | |
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| | 320 | |
| The Transformation to Nonbiological Experience. |
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| The Longevity of Information. |
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| ...on Warfare: The Remote, Robotic, Robust, Size-Reduced, Virtual-Reality Paradigm |
| | 330 | |
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| | 335 | |
| | 337 | |
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| | 341 | |
| ...on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe |
| | 342 | |
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| The Limits of Computation Revisited. |
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| Expanding Beyond the Solar System. |
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| The Speed of Light Revisited. |
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| Changing the Speed of Light. |
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| The Fermi Paradox Revisited. |
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| The Anthropic Principle Revisited. |
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| Intelligence as the Destiny of the Universe. |
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| The Ultimate Utility Function. |
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| Why Intelligence Is More Powerful than Physics. |
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| A Universe-Scale Computer. |
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| The Holographic Universe. |
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| CHAPTER SEVEN Ich bin ein Singularitarian | | 369 | |
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| The Vexing Question of Consciousness |
| | 376 | |
| | 382 | |
| The Singularity as Transcendence |
| | 387 | |
| CHAPTER EIGHT The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR | | 391 | |
| | 396 | |
| | 397 | |
| A Panoply of Existential Risks |
| | 400 | |
| The Precautionary Principle. |
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| The Smaller the Interaction, the Larger the Explosive Potential. |
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| Our Simulation Is Turned Off. |
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| GNR: The Proper Focus of Promise Versus Peril. |
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| The Inevitability of a Transformed Future. |
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| Totalitarian Relinquishment. |
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| | 408 | |
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| The Idea of Relinquishment |
| | 410 | |
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| Fine-Grained Relinquishment. |
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| The Threat from Fundamentalism. |
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| Development of Defensive Technologies and the Impact of Regulation |
| | 416 | |
| Protection from "Unfriendly" Strong AI. |
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| Civil Liberties in an Age of Asymmetric Warfare. |
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| A Program for GNR Defense |
| | 422 | |
| CHAPTER NINE Response to Critics | | 427 | |
| | 427 | |
| The Criticism from Incredulity |
| | 432 | |
| The Criticism from Malthus |
| | 433 | |
| Exponential Trends Don't Last Forever. |
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| A Virtually Unlimited Limit. |
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| The Criticism from Software |
| | 435 | |
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| Software Price-Performance. |
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| Software Development Productivity. |
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| The Ultimate Source of Intelligent Algorithms. |
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| The Criticism from Analog Processing |
| | 442 | |
| The Criticism from the Complexity of Neural Processing |
| | 442 | |
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| A Computer's Inherent Dualism. |
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| The Criticism from Microtubules and Quantum Computing |
| | 450 | |
| The Criticism from the Church-Turing Thesis |
| | 453 | |
| The Criticism from Failure Rates |
| | 456 | |
| The Criticism from "Lock-In" |
| | 457 | |
| The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious? |
| | 458 | |
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| The Criticism from the Rich-Poor Divide |
| | 469 | |
| The Criticism from the Likelihood of Government Regulation |
| | 470 | |
| The Unbearable Slowness of Social Institutions. |
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| The Criticism from Theism |
| | 473 | |
| The Criticism from Holism |
| | 479 | |
| Epilogue | | 485 | |
| How Singular? Human Centrality. | |
| Resources and Contact Information | | 489 | |
| Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited | | 491 | |
| Notes | | 497 | |
| Index | | 603 | |
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