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Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future

Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the FutureTitoloScenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future
AutoreWright, George ; Cairns, George
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€ 36,87   Spedizioni gratuite in Italia
(Prezzo € 38,81)
CategoriaBusiness & Economics: Organizational Development
Business & Economics: Decision Making & Problem Solving
Business & Economics: Human Resources & Personnel Management
RilegaturaHardcover
Dati176 p.; ill.
Anno2011
EditorePalgrave MacMillan
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Descrizione
"Presents new methods in scenario thinking, based on a mix of high-level research and top-level consultancy experience. The authors describe the logical bases of a range of scenario methods and provide detailed 'road maps' on how to implement them - together with practical examples of their application"--

Indice e argomenti trattati
List of Figures and Tables
viii
Acknowledgmentsix
Introductionxi
Chapter 1 Why Should the Individual and the Organization Practice Scenario Thinking?
1
Constrained thinking and the global financial crisis of the 2000s
3
Societal constraints on challenge and the usefulness of scenario thinking
5
What are scenario thinking and scenario method?
7
Our approach
10
What are the business credentials of scenario method?
14
Critiques of scenario planning and a defense
15
Chapter 2 Working with Scenarios: Introducing the Basic Method
18
Scenario thinking as a way of being
21
Elements of our focal scenario method
21
General introduction and preparation
23
The scenario process in action
28
Beyond scenario development: strategic decision-making
45
Chapter 3 Incorporating Stakeholder Values and Facilitating Critique of Scenario Storylines
47
Availability bias
47
Framing bias
51
Enhancing stakeholder analysis using role-playing
54
Group decision making research and scenario development
59
Summary
62
Chapter 4 Understanding Stakeholder Viewpoints
64
Developing shared understanding of what is not known and understood
64
The "social construction of uncertainty"
67
Common issue: same interpretation - different reason
69
Common language: same words - different meanings
70
Different place or audience: conflicting messages - same speaker!
72
Coping with the "multiple realities" of organizational life
73
Actively seeking further realities: building the "broad" stakeholder approach
74
Advanced scenario development: value judgments and the critical scenario method
75
Scenarios as tools for consolidation or for change
80
Summary
81
Chapter 5 Augmented Scenario Approaches: Delving Deeper and Stretching Wider
83
Augmented scenario method 1: towards a deeper understanding of content
84
Augmented scenario method 2: towards a broader understanding of impact
88
Summary
100
Chapter 6 Scenarios and Decision Analysis
103
Combining scenario thinking and decision analysis
105
Stage 1 formulate scenarios
106
Stage 2 formulate the objectives that you wish to achieve in your strategic actions
106
Stage 3 design alternative strategies
107
Stage 4 for each objective, rank each strategy against each scenario from best to worst
107
Stage 5 for each objective, rank all strategy-scenario combinations from best to worst
109
Stage 6 compute the sum-of-ranks for each strategy and provisionally select the best-performing strategy
112
Chapter 7 Creating Robust Strategies and Robust Organizations
116
Hindsight bias
116
The waiter's dilemma and confirmation bias
117
When the unexpected occurs
119
Organizational design: lessons from climate-change researchers
121
Evaluating strategies against scenarios
124
Summary
131
Chapter 8 The Backwards Logic Method of Constructing Extreme Scenarios
132
Broadening the scope of constructed scenarios
135
Constructing scenarios using backwards logic
136
Summary
141
Chapter 9 Diagnosing Organizational Receptiveness
142
Interviewing members of the top team
145
Using Janis and Mann's theory to analyze the interview material
148
Examples of Scenario Practice
148
Summary
161
Summary163
Appendix165
References168
Index173

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