| LIST OF TABLES | | xiii | |
| LIST OF FIGURES | | xvii | |
| LIST OF BOXES | | xxiii | |
| PREFACE | | xxv | |
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS | | xxxvii | |
| PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE | | xxxix | |
| PART I Financial Crises: An Operational Primer | | 1 | |
| 1 Varieties of Crises and Their Dates |
| | 3 | |
| Crises Defined by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement |
| | 4 | |
| Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default |
| | 8 | |
| 2 Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default |
| | 21 | |
| | 21 | |
| | 25 | |
| | 27 | |
| Reflections on Debt Intolerance |
| | 29 | |
| 3 A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View |
| | 34 | |
| Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP |
| | 35 | |
| Government Finances and National Accounts |
| | 39 | |
| Public Debt and Its Composition |
| | 40 | |
| | 43 | |
| | 43 | |
| PART II Sovereign External Debt Crises | | 49 | |
| 4 A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises |
| | 51 | |
| | 54 | |
| Illiquidity versus Insolvency |
| | 59 | |
| Partial Default and Rescheduling |
| | 61 | |
| | 63 | |
| | 64 | |
| | 67 | |
| 5 Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt |
| | 68 | |
| | 68 | |
| Default and Banking Crises |
| | 73 | |
| | 75 | |
| Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default |
| | 77 | |
| The Duration of Default Episodes |
| | 81 | |
| 6 External Default through History |
| | 86 | |
| The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300-1799 |
| | 86 | |
| Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story |
| | 89 | |
| External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture |
| | 89 | |
| PART III The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default | | 101 | |
| 7 The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default |
| | 103 | |
| Domestic and External Debt |
| | 103 | |
| Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition |
| | 105 | |
| Episodes of Domestic Default |
| | 110 | |
| Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt |
| | 111 | |
| 8 Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation |
| | 119 | |
| Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle |
| | 119 | |
| Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of Eterenal Default |
| | 123 | |
| The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" |
| | 124 | |
| Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? |
| | 125 | |
| The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited |
| | 127 | |
| 9 Domestic and External Default: Which is Worse? Who is Senior? |
| | 128 | |
| Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults |
| | 129 | |
| Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults |
| | 129 | |
| The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors |
| | 133 | |
| Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues |
| | 136 | |
| PART IV Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes | | 139 | |
| | 141 | |
| A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises |
| | 143 | |
| Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace |
| | 147 | |
| Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization |
| | 155 | |
| Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices |
| | 157 | |
| Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? |
| | 162 | |
| The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited |
| | 162 | |
| Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations |
| | 171 | |
| 11 Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite" |
| | 174 | |
| 12 Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes |
| | 180 | |
| An Early History of Inflation Crises |
| | 181 | |
| Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons |
| | 182 | |
| | 189 | |
| The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses |
| | 191 | |
| Undoing Domestic Dollarization |
| | 193 | |
| PART V The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction | | 199 | |
| 13 The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison |
| | 203 | |
| A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath |
| | 204 | |
| The This-Time-Es-Different Synchiorne and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis |
| | 208 | |
| Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis |
| | 208 | |
| The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis |
| | 215 | |
| A Comparision of the Subprime Crisis with, Past Crises in Advanced Economies |
| | 216 | |
| | 221 | |
| 14 The Aftermath of Financial Crises |
| | 223 | |
| Historical Episodes Revisited |
| | 225 | |
| The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration |
| | 226 | |
| The Fiscal Legacy of Crises |
| | 231 | |
| | 232 | |
| Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930's |
| | 233 | |
| | 238 | |
| 15 The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common fundamentals? |
| | 240 | |
| | 241 | |
| Selected Earlier Epsiodes |
| | 241 | |
| Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction |
| | 242 | |
| Are More Spillovers Under Way? |
| | 246 | |
| 16 Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil |
| | 248 | |
| Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index |
| | 249 | |
| Defining a Global Financial Crisis |
| | 260 | |
| The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype |
| | 270 | |
| | 273 | |
| PART VI What Have We Learned? | | 275 | |
| 17 Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature |
| | 277 | |
| On Early Warnings of Crises |
| | 278 | |
| The Role of International Institutions |
| | 281 | |
| | 283 | |
| Some Observations on Policy Responses |
| | 287 | |
| The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome |
| | 290 | |
| DATA APPENDIXES | | 293 | |
| A.1. Macroeconomic Time Series |
| | 295 | |
| | 327 | |
| A.3. Dates of Banking Crises |
| | 344 | |
| A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises |
| | 348 | |
| NOTES | | 393 | |
| REFERENCES | | 409 | |
| NAME INDEX | | 435 | |
| SUBJECT INDEX | | 443 | |
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