| Preface | | ix | |
| Acknowledgments | | xix | |
| 1 Question One: What Do You Believe That Is Actually False? |
| | 1 | |
| If You Knew It Was Wrong, You Wouldn't Believe It |
| | 1 | |
| The Mythological Correlation |
| | 8 | |
| Always Look at It Differently |
| | 15 | |
| When You Are Really, Really Wrong |
| | 21 | |
| 2 Question Two: What Can You Fathom That Others Find Unfathomable? |
| | 31 | |
| Fathoming the Unfathomable |
| | 31 | |
| Ignore the Rock in the Bushes |
| | 32 | |
| Discounting the Media Machine and Advanced Fad Avoidance |
| | 33 | |
| The Shocking Truth About Yield Curves |
| | 38 | |
| What the Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell You |
| | 49 | |
| The Presidential Term Cycle |
| | 57 | |
| 3 Question Three: What the Heck Is My Brain Doing to Blindside Me Now? |
| | 67 | |
| It's Not Your Fault---Blame Evolution |
| | 67 | |
| Cracking the Stone Age Code---Pride and Regret |
| | 72 | |
| The Great Humiliator's Favorite Tricks |
| | 85 | |
| Get Your Head Out of the Cave |
| | 87 | |
| 4 Capital Markets Technology |
| | 95 | |
| Building and Putting Capital Markets Technology Into Practice |
| | 95 | |
| | 100 | |
| Forecast With Accuracy, Not Like a Professional |
| | 105 | |
| Better Living Through Global Benchmarking |
| | 113 | |
| 5 When There's No There, There! |
| | 131 | |
| Johns Hopkins, My Grampa, Life Lessons and Pulling a Gertrude |
| | 131 | |
| In the Center Ring---Oil Versus Stocks |
| | 136 | |
| Sell in May Because the January Effect Will Dampen Your Santa Claus Rally Unless There Is a Witching Effect |
| | 148 | |
| 6 No, It's Just The Opposite |
| | 155 | |
| When You Are Wrong---Really, Really, Really Wrong |
| | 155 | |
| Multiplier Effects and the Heroin-Addicted iPod Borrower |
| | 163 | |
| Let's Trade This Deficit for That One |
| | 170 | |
| | 175 | |
| | 185 | |
| Supply and Demand ... and That's It |
| | 185 | |
| Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar---What Does It Matter? |
| | 200 | |
| 8 The Great Humiliator and Your Stone Age Brain |
| | 213 | |
| | 213 | |
| | 221 | |
| | 229 | |
| What Causes a Bear Market? |
| | 244 | |
| 9 Putting It All Together |
| | 251 | |
| Stick With Your Strategy and Stick It to Him |
| | 251 | |
| | 257 | |
| Finally! How to Pick Stocks That Only Win |
| | 274 | |
| When the Heck Do You Sell? |
| | 281 | |
| Conclusion: Time to Say Goodbye |
| | 289 | |
| | 290 | |
| Appendix A Causal Correlations and the Correlation Coefficient | | 295 | |
| Appendix B News You Can't Use | | 299 | |
| Appendix C Greater Fools | | 301 | |
| Appendix D I Hate Funds | | 303 | |
| Appendix E Annualized Versus Average | | 307 | |
| Appendix F The Wizard of Oz and an OZ of Gold | | 309 | |
| Appendix G 1980 Revisited | | 313 | |
| Appendix H Popular But Problematic | | 317 | |
| Appendix I Covered Calls---Covering What? | | 321 | |
| Notes | | 323 | |
| About the Authors | | 329 | |
| Index | | 331 | |
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