| | 15 | |
| Acknowledgments | | 17 | |
| | 19 | |
| | 19 | |
| | 20 | |
| | 20 | |
| | 21 | |
| | 22 | |
| | 23 | |
| | 23 | |
| | 25 | |
| | 25 | |
| | 26 | |
| Sports betting EV example |
| | 28 | |
| | 29 | |
| Converting a money line into percentage |
| | 29 | |
| Converting percentage into a money line |
| | 29 | |
| | 30 | |
| | 31 | |
| | 32 | |
| | 33 | |
| Half Point and Push Percentage |
| | 34 | |
| | 34 | |
| | 36 | |
| | 36 | |
| | 37 | |
| | 38 | |
| | 38 | |
| | 39 | |
| | 40 | |
| | 41 | |
| | 42 | |
| | 43 | |
| | 45 | |
| | 46 | |
| | 46 | |
| | 46 | |
| Situational and emotional |
| | 47 | |
| | 47 | |
| | 48 | |
| | 48 | |
| | 48 | |
| | 48 | |
| | 49 | |
| Handicapper/Relative-Value Overlap |
| | 49 | |
| | 49 | |
| | 50 | |
| | 50 | |
| | 50 | |
| | 51 | |
| | 51 | |
| | 52 | |
| Betting For a Living is Work |
| | 52 | |
| | 52 | |
| | 53 | |
| | 53 | |
| | 53 | |
| | 53 | |
| Persistence and physical endurance |
| | 54 | |
| | 54 | |
| | 55 | |
| | 79 | |
| | 80 | |
| The risk of the original wager is too great |
| | 80 | |
| | 80 | |
| | 81 | |
| The hedge has positive or zero EV |
| | 81 | |
| | 81 | |
| | 81 | |
| The hedge was pre-planned |
| | 82 | |
| The hedge releases capital |
| | 83 | |
| | 84 | |
| Estimate the EV of the hedge |
| | 84 | |
| Understand the risk of the bets |
| | 84 | |
| Estimate the probability of winning |
| | 85 | |
| Calculate the current EV of the wager. |
| | 85 | |
| Determine the maximum win and maximum loss |
| | 85 | |
| Evaluate the risk after the hedge |
| | 86 | |
| Compare the EV to the risk profile |
| | 87 | |
| | 88 | |
| | 89 | |
| | 91 | |
| Hedging After Line Movement |
| | 91 | |
| Avoiding a Reverse Middle |
| | 92 | |
| Increasing Risk with a Hedge |
| | 93 | |
| | 93 | |
| | 94 | |
| | 94 | |
| Hedging the Last Leg of a Parlay |
| | 94 | |
| | 95 | |
| | 96 | |
| | 99 | |
| | 100 | |
| | 101 | |
| | 101 | |
| | 101 | |
| | 102 | |
| | 104 | |
| | 105 | |
| | 105 | |
| | 105 | |
| | 105 | |
| | 105 | |
| | 107 | |
| | 107 | |
| | 109 | |
| | 110 | |
| | 111 | |
| | 112 | |
| | 112 | |
| | 115 | |
| | 116 | |
| | 116 | |
| | 118 | |
| | 119 | |
| | 119 | |
| The Value of Particular Numbers |
| | 124 | |
| | 124 | |
| | 124 | |
| | 124 | |
| | 124 | |
| | 125 | |
| | 126 | |
| | 126 | |
| | 127 | |
| Good, Bad and Average Numbers |
| | 128 | |
| | 128 | |
| | 133 | |
| Buying, Selling and Trading |
| | 133 | |
| | 135 | |
| | 136 | |
| | 137 | |
| | 137 | |
| | 140 | |
| | 141 | |
| | 141 | |
| | 142 | |
| | 145 | |
| | 147 | |
| | 148 | |
| The Third Round and Beyond |
| | 148 | |
| | 149 | |
| Texas A&M vs. Syracuse: #12 vs. #5 |
| | 149 | |
| Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs. Oklahoma: #11 vs. #6 |
| | 150 | |
| San Diego State vs. Indiana: #11 vs. #6 |
| | 150 | |
| Wisconsin vs. Arizona: #9 vs. #8 |
| | 150 | |
| UAB vs. Kentucky: #9 vs. #8 |
| | 150 | |
| Wichita -2.5 vs. Seton Hall: #7 vs. #10 |
| | 150 | |
| Marquette -2 Alabama: #7 vs. #10 |
| | 150 | |
| California -1.5 NC State #7 vs. #10 |
| | 150 | |
| | 151 | |
| | 151 | |
| | 151 | |
| | 151 | |
| | 153 | |
| | 153 | |
| | 154 | |
| | 155 | |
| Game 3, home team down 0-2 |
| | 155 | |
| Game 4, home team down 0-3 |
| | 155 | |
| Game 6, home team down 2-3 |
| | 156 | |
| | 156 | |
| | 156 | |
| | 157 | |
| | 158 | |
| | 158 | |
| Exact Series Line Spreadsheet |
| | 160 | |
| | 161 | |
| FirstHalfVersus Full Game |
| | 162 | |
| Endurance of starting pitchers |
| | 162 | |
| Bullpen strengths of teams |
| | 163 | |
| Bench strength for pinch-hitting |
| | 163 | |
| | 164 | |
| | 165 | |
| Half Runs in Five Innings |
| | 166 | |
| | 166 | |
| | 167 | |
| | 168 | |
| | 169 | |
| Higher Totals Have Fewer Pushes |
| | 169 | |
| Value Depends on the Total |
| | 170 | |
| An example with totals of 7 / 5 |
| | 171 | |
| An example with totals of 10 / 10.5 |
| | 172 | |
| | 172 | |
| | 173 | |
| Before the Kentucky Derby |
| | 173 | |
| Bet the ``No'' after the Derby |
| | 174 | |
| If a Favorite Wins the Derby |
| | 175 | |
| If a Long Shot Wins the Derby |
| | 176 | |
| Fewer Horses in Later Races |
| | 177 | |
| Lower Odds in the Belmont |
| | 178 | |
| | 179 | |
| Putting the Odds Together |
| | 180 | |
| | 181 | |
| | 182 | |
| | 184 | |
| | 185 | |
| | 185 | |
| | 186 | |
| | 187 | |
| | 187 | |
| | 188 | |
| | 188 | |
| | 188 | |
| | 190 | |
| | 190 | |
| | 191 | |
| | 192 | |
| Head to Head Down the Stretch |
| | 193 | |
| | 195 | |
| Be Ready for Opening Lines |
| | 195 | |
| | 196 | |
| | 197 | |
| College football: returning starters |
| | 198 | |
| | 198 | |
| Starting base and current line |
| | 198 | |
| | 198 | |
| Baseball angle: sign-stealing |
| | 199 | |
| | 199 | |
| Starting base and current line |
| | 199 | |
| Use Statistics in Context |
| | 199 | |
| | 200 | |
| | 201 | |
| | 201 | |
| | 201 | |
| Market moves and tendencies |
| | 201 | |
| | 202 | |
| | 203 | |
| | 203 | |
| | 204 | |
| | 204 | |
| | 205 | |
| College football correlated parlay |
| | 205 | |
| | 206 | |
| | 206 | |
| How do you think the line will move? |
| | 207 | |
| How sharp do you think the market is? |
| | 208 | |
| | 208 | |
| Bet the max, and hope they don't notice |
| | 209 | |
| Bet smaller, and hope they don't adjust |
| | 209 | |
| | 209 | |
| Forgetting the value of money |
| | 210 | |
| | 210 | |
| | 210 | |
| | 210 | |
| | 211 | |
| | 211 | |
| | 212 | |
| | 212 | |
| Lines the handicapper used |
| | 214 | |
| Handicappers selling multiple services |
| | 215 | |
| Handicappers who release picks early |
| | 216 | |
| Websites for Handicappers |
| | 217 | |
| Other Relevant Information |
| | 218 | |
| | 218 | |
| | 219 | |
| | 219 | |
| Strategically releasing picks |
| | 220 | |
| | 222 | |
| Situation 1: the line moves to Pacers +5 |
| | 222 | |
| Situation 2: the line moves to Pacers +5 |
| | 222 | |
| | 222 | |
| | 222 | |
| | 222 | |
| Using break-even handicappers for cover |
| | 223 | |
| Why does the handicapper sell picks? |
| | 224 | |
| | 224 | |
| Sports Bets in Unusual Places |
| | 225 | |
| | 225 | |
| | 226 | |
| | 227 | |
| Options on Super Bowl Tickets |
| | 227 | |
| | 228 | |
| | 229 | |
| | 229 | |
| | 229 | |
| | 230 | |
| | 231 | |
| | 231 | |
| Good things about Internet forums |
| | 231 | |
| Bad things about Internet forums |
| | 232 | |
| Internet forums on sports betting |
| | 232 | |
| | 232 | |
| | 233 | |
| The media guarantee a win! |
| | 233 | |
| Personal relationships with players |
| | 234 | |
| The media overrate NFL quarterbacks |
| | 234 | |
| The media try to explain everything |
| | 235 | |
| | 236 | |
| | 237 | |
| Glossary | | 243 | |
| Index | | 249 | |
$ 19.95 (Come calcoliamo i 
