The Gamble: Random, or Romney?

"Random, or Romney?" is the second of a series of free eBook preview chapters from John Sides and Lynn Vavreck's groundbreaking Fall 2013 book, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election. These eBook chapters are scheduled to be released between August and December 2012. Picking up where the first chapter, "The Hand You're Dealt," left off, "Random, or Romney?" provides incisive analysis of the Republican primary season up to the Iowa caucuses. During the fall of 2011 and early last winter, it seemed as if Republicans wanted to nominate anyone but Mitt Romney. One after another, Romney challengers shot to the lead only to collapse under the scrutiny of the media and voters. Sides and Vavreck argue that the rise and fall of other candidates was due less to any significant opposition to Romney than it was to the media hunt for an exciting story. Looking at Romney's early endorsements, fundraising, organization, and relatively steady position in the polls, including significant support among conservatives who had been expected to oppose him, the authors show why a contest between Romney and Barack Obama was inevitable as early as the beginning of the year. This book represents an unprecedented effort to use a "Moneyball" approach to tell the story of what promises to be a dramatic election campaign, drawing on large quantities of data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to determine the factors that really make a difference. At the same time, Sides and Vavreck will be visiting the campaign trail to find out what matters most to both of the campaigns and to voters. The result promises to be the only book about the election that combines on-the-ground reporting, social science, and quantitative data in order to look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that too often pass for analysis of presidential elections. To find out more, download this chapter and begin reading the authors' special introduction to this and the other free chapters that will follow as the election campaign unfolds. The Gamble is scheduled to be published as a complete print and eBook in September 2013.